Inaugural Trade Network Workshop “Global trade after the Great Recession: cyclical dynamics, structural changes and the new steady state”

The inaugural Trade Network Workshop is being organised by the European Central Bank and will be held in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, on 17 September 2018.

After years of low growth, global trade dynamics are gaining momentum again. At the same time, trade growth is likely to remain below pre-crisis averages. This gives rise to a number of questions, such as: What is the new steady state for global trade growth? What are the drivers of the cyclical developments? Which structural determinants will anchor trade growth going forward? To what extent are protectionist policies posing risks to world trade? The workshop will bring together central bankers, academics and market practitioners to discuss their views and empirical evidence on these topics.

Two keynote addresses will be delivered by Graham Slack, Chief Economist of A.P. Møller-Mærsk, and Bernard Hoekman, Robert Schuman Chair at the European University Institute.

We welcome any contributions on these topics, particularly those that focus on the following four areas:

  1. The cyclical position of trade: Empirical studies on the cyclical dynamics of trade, short- and medium-term forecasting models, and trend/cycle decompositions.
  2. Structural changes and steady state determinants: Studies that focus on structural breaks, time-variation in trade growth, and structural factors determining trade dynamics in the medium and long term.
  3. Trade and technology: Empirical and theoretical contributions that focus on the role of technology in global value chain participation, on- versus re-shoring, intra-firm trade, and provision and measurement of trade in services.
  4. Trade and protectionism: Studies that assess the impact on trade flows of protectionist policies and trade agreements and the potential impact of Brexit.

Please email your contributions to  by 31 July 2018.

The event is being hosted by the European Central Bank.

Organising Committee

  • Alexander Al-Haschimi ()
  • Frauke Skudelny ()
  • Björn van Roye ()