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Managing Uncertainties in Modelling Air Pollution (MU-MAP)

Managing Uncertainties in Modelling Air Pollution (MU-MAP)

PI: Marcel van Oijen (CEH-Edinburgh)

CO-I’s & collaborators: David Cameron, Lindsay Banin and Ron Smith (CEH-Edinburgh), staff at the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA)

Project Overview: The project develops methodology for assessing uncertainties of small, process-based models that are used to estimate deposition of air pollutants to the landscape. The aim is to include this uncertainty assessment in decision-making processes. Atmospheric deposition affects the health of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, and SEPA, a partner in the project, have the statutory responsibility for air pollution regulation; their decisions can depend on the deposition estimated from a process-based model. The project will embed one such model, CBED, in a Bayesian Hierarchical Model and show how this facilitates parameter estimation, discrepancy estimation, and probabilistic risk analysis. Specific project goals are to: (1) quantify parametric and structural uncertainty of CBED, (2) visually communicate this uncertainty to users at SEPA and co-develop new methods for integrating this into decision-making, (3) through dialogue with SEPA, identify other sources of uncertainty in SEPA’s decision making process and develop novel research directions to put uncertainty quantification into practice.

M2D Research Agenda

Open Consultation

Please respond with your comments to m2d@exeter.ac.uk

 

 

M2D Funding Applications Deadline

Call now closed

Next Expert Panel Meeting

Friday 14th September 2018

Get in contact

Emma Clarke m2d@exeter.ac.uk
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