Category Archives: Applied Strategy

RAF Officer Graduates from Chief of the Defence Staff’s Scholarship

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20150414-Exeter Graduation Photograph copy

An RAF Officer selected as the first Chief of the Defence Staff’s Scholar has graduated with distinction from the University of Exeter. Wing Commander Mal Craghill was selected as the CDS Scholar from a group of MOD personnel undertaking the inaugural MA Applied Security and Strategy (MStrat) at Exeter’s Strategy and Security Institute, where he had been awarded a place through the Chief of the Air Staff’s Fellowship scheme. Besides the MOD students the MStrat cohort of 28 included recent Bachelor’s graduates as well as mid-career professionals from diverse backgrounds, nationalities and career streams.

Exeter’s Strategy and Security Institute, led last year by Professor Paul Cornish and Lt Gen (Ret’d) Sir Paul Newton, offers the MStrat as a unique and innovative approach to the study of strategy in the contemporary security environment. Alongside a core programme of lectures and seminars, students undertake crisis management simulations, field trips and conferences as well as presenting their own policy frameworks for the UK’s engagement with real world challenges. In the latter case Wg Cdr Craghill led a group investigating the UK’s approach towards Iran, culminating in a presentation to Whitehall policy-makers at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

The MStrat, taught by dedicated faculty as well as a wide array of internationally renowned academics and practitioners, pushes students well beyond traditional academic boundaries and sees them producing blog posts, op-ed articles and think pieces, policy briefs, options papers and evidence submissions to Parliamentary Select Committees as well as more traditional essays and literature reviews. Topics range widely, covering areas such as the role of the private sector in delivering national strategy, scrutiny of intelligence and security agencies, and drawing lessons from historical case studies. The final MStrat deliverable is a dissertation on a strategy or security related topic; Wg Cdr Craghill’s research took an inter-disciplinary approach to remodelling conflict prevention in fragile states, applying lessons from crime prevention to suggest a revised approach to the UK’s strategy for intervening in the developing world. He is now putting the MStrat into action in the MOD’s strategic headquarters, formulating policy and plans in the Defence Engagement Strategy team.

Photo: Wg Cdr Craghill graduating from the University of Exeter’s inaugural MA Applied Security and Strategy.

Dan Sowik on the ARRC Staff Ride to Berlin

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At first glance, the city of Berlin bears few scars of the brutal Soviet assault it suffered in 1945. However, at certain moments during NATO’s Exercise ARRCADE BUGLE 14, a chronological journey through the siege which ended the Second World War in Europe, and through the city’s Cold War experience, the history seemed to seep out of the surroundings. Standing on Kustrin Fort and looking westward across the River Oder towards Berlin, as so many thousands of Red Army soldiers must have done with anticipation and apprehension in April 1945. Looking out from the Seelow Heights over the Oder flood plain, across which nearly a million Soviet troops advanced in the last big push of the European war. Standing on the remains of the Humboldthain flak tower in central Berlin, where crew after crew of Hitler Youth manned the guns in defence of what remained of Hitler’s Germany, in the face of certain annihilation by a ferocious Soviet artillery bombardment.

Though certainly of immense historical importance, the Battle for Berlin does not stand as a shining example of strategic brilliance from which modern leaders can learn. It is, at its simplest level, a case of the final death throes of a fanatical regime being violently suppressed by the brute force of an equally tyrannical opponent. Leadership was weak on both sides, with Hitler giving contradictory orders and awaiting salvation in the form of outmanned and outgunned armies, and Stalin playing Russian generals against one another, letting them throw tens of thousands of men into the fray as they competed to enter Berlin and capture the Reichstag building. Effectiveness at the tactical level varied wildly, but this was ultimately of little consequence when both sides were willing to accept such heavy losses.

Having grown up in the bubble of relative peace and security that is post-Cold War Europe, perhaps the most striking thing about the Berlin staff ride was how the historical conflict simultaneously felt so foreign, and yet so familiar. While the idea of total war in Europe now seems like a bad nightmare for many of us, some collective memories are longer than others, and the history of the 1940s now acts as an ideological catalyst for a war in Eastern Europe. While the presentations and discussions with NATO personnel which punctuated the tour highlighted the ways in which warfare at the tactical, operational, and even strategic levels has evolved in the last 70 years, the trip served as a poignant reminder of what can happen when grand strategies collide. Moreover, hearing the news while in Berlin that a civilian airliner had been shot down over Ukraine drove home the point that the Second World War was no more a ‘war to end all wars’ than the First.

Ultimately, the Berlin staff ride was an incredible experience, and an opportunity to study perhaps one of the most comprehensive victories ever achieved in a war of ideology and conquest. While there are few modern parallels, there are still lessons which can and should be learned from the Battle for Berlin, not the least of which is the ultimate, terrible cost of total war between industrialised, fanatical nations.

MStrat and ARRCADE FUSION

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‘Headquarters Allied Rapid Reaction Corps’ is an imposing title that is entirely suitable for NATO’s premier rapid deployment headquarters. This means ‘HQ ARRC’ is the headquarters that NATO may turn to in its hour of need. If it is believed that a region needs stabilising, this will probably be the organisation that does it.

However maintaining the capability and expertise that ensures this is not an easy task. This is where exercises like ARRCADE Fusion become important. At several points throughout the year the staff at HQ ARRC are tested to breaking point through simulations designed to mirror what could happen if they were deployed. The Exercise Control, or ‘EXCON’, spends three weeks causing chaos within the simulation and the staff of HQ ARRC has no choice but to respond with all the energy they can muster.

Within this maelstrom of activity and acronyms, two former MStrat students found themselves arriving with sleeping bags and, in my case, wholly inadequate waterproof clothing in hand. Daniel Sowik and I had volunteered for this mission determined to understand what the ‘Applied’ in ‘MA Applied Security Strategy’ actually means.

As part of an experiment for HQ ARRC and SSI, we were attached to the G2 Branch’s All Source Cell. The G2 is responsible for the HQ’s intelligence activities and our cell analysed the intelligence gathered. The All-Source Cell’s team of analysts makes assessments that help guide senior level decision-making.

Thrust into this frenetic environment Daniel and I were given our roles. He was working with the G2’s Political Advisor as Political Analyst and I, with a counter extremism role in Whitehall, as the Counter Extremism Subject Matter Expert.

However before we dove into the workings of G2 there was the simple matter of the simulation itself. We read hundreds of pages about it, covering mineral deposit locations to relationships between key individuals. After wading through this information, we began to develop our contributions.

Learning how the HQ worked and improving our situational awareness, we eventually became integrated into the processes driving the ARRC’s activities rather than being just ‘attached’. Daniel and I developed white papers that helped to inform the HQ’s commanders, as well as operating as sounding boards for intelligence assessments. Mostly importantly we gave different perspectives on the situation that were appreciated and taken onboard by senior staff, giving us excellent feedback that helped drive the creation of our products. For Daniel and me, hearing that experienced and respected military personnel were finding value in our output was extremely gratifying.

However this is not the whole story of the ARRC.

My personal reflection often returns to being genuinely impressed by HQ ARRC and its personnel. Seeing people work 15 hours a day, keep their spirits up, and find time for the gym is mind-blowing to my former student self. This was whilst sleeping in tents situated in a cold and constantly wet Cornwall far from home.

But what has really surprised me is my reaction to leaving HQ ARRC. After integrating into and experiencing the simulation I remember the feeling of immediacy and the adrenaline rush from operating in that environment. Suffice it to say, I hope to be back soon.

Al Cole was a student on the Innovation Cohort who now works in the Department of Education on Counter Extremism

From Great Leap Forward to Confident Stride, But can China Prevent Itself from Stumbling? By David Bond

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Exeter, November 2014. There are signs that China is struggling with the reforms required to realise its potential during a millennia prematurely labeled ‘Asia’s Century’. In three decades China has undergone a transformation of staggering proportions witnessing unprecedented economic growth. The question that remains is whether President Xi Jinpeng can create the conditions within China that will deliver the growth necessary for ‘China’s Dream’. This question will as well be heavily influenced by China’s demographics, which will probably be a seismic game changer. It is possible that China may stumble on its 21st Century journey in attempting to deliver this ‘dream’ as President Xi now wrestles with the dilemma of implementing the policy changes necessary to continue China’s economic growth whilst limiting the change to the workforce’s age structure and insatiable economic aspirations. China’s economy is not without its own problems as William Wilson recently outlined, “China surpassed the United States in outstanding corporate debt last year, amounting to $14.2 trillion. Moreover, the credit quality of Asian corporate debt is much lower than in the West.” The amount of household debt now held in China is approaching the levels the UK experienced between 2001-2007. Such levels of personal debt were assessed as being toxic in the West and contributed, in part, to the slow economic growth post-crash. Radical social and economic reforms are necessary; what is required from the Central Committee, therefore, is action and not inertia.

China has experienced tremendous social change in the past, but the results have not always been terribly impressive. Mao’s Great Leap Forward in 1958-61 was intended to deliver a rapid transformation from an agrarian economy into a communist society through industrialisation and collectivisation. It delivered, however, The Great Famine resulting in 30 million deaths with Mao introducing systematic terror, coercion and forced labour in striving for transformation. A return to such practices in the 21st Century is highly unlikely however, and especially with Xi Jinpeng. The Chinese President is evidently, and intentionally, stepping out of the shadows of the Central Committee. He has solidified his power base, adopted greater executive powers and appears to be forging an identity as Statesman rather than pantomime ‘princeling’. President Xi’s personal experience whilst working in Liangjiahe, on a farm for seven years, should have engendered some empathy with the majority of Chinese people – his abhorrence towards the endemic corruption that exists within government is surely evidence of that. This empathy should serve him well; it is often forgotten that China remains an extraordinarily poor country with around one billion Chinese living in abject poverty on less than $4 a day. Policy reforms therefore, need to address the inequality that exists in China and make society more equitable; he of all of the ‘princelings’ will know that.

The more sophisticated reforms of the late 1970s delivered two basic aims: developing the Chinese economy and controlling the population. Thereafter, China opened its doors to foreign trade and created a manufacturing based market economy and introduced the ‘One Child Policy’. Implemented in 1979, this population control measure has significantly slowed Chinese fertility rates (presently between 1.5 and 1.6 births per woman) and was partly responsible for the demographic dividend that assisted China whilst realising year-on-year gains of 10% gross domestic product (GDP). However, some analysts now assert that such economic growth is unlikely to continue; the signs are that it is already slowing with GDP for 2012 (7.7%) and 2013 (7.6%) falling short of projections.   And, to compound the problem China’s population is ageing, and it is doing so very quickly. The ‘demographic dividend’ that has boosted China’s industries will in a few years become a ‘demographic deficit’. In dealing with this problem, more emphasis on society providing care for the elderly will be necessary. What should be a concern for the Communist Party is that even when unpopular policies like this are relaxed, as was the case last year, cultural changes within society and affordability issues have resulted in a surprising apathy towards larger families. Xinhua, a Chinese paper, recently outlined that whilst “11 million couples have been granted a permit to have a second child since the country relaxed its family planning policy at the end of last year, statistics from the National Health and Family Planning Commission shows that only 700,000 had filed birth applications.” It is possible the cost of sending additional children through an expensive education system, with limited capacity, is preventing parents from extending their families. The government therefore, should add the issue of affordable and available education to its ‘to do list’.

China is not unique in facing this problem, and by 2050 in excess of 60 countries will have populations where over 30% are 60 years or older. Significantly, only a third of those countries affected possess adequate social welfare schemes to address this problem. Significantly, China is not one of those countries and they currently possess a ridiculously low average retirement age (50 years for women and 60 for men). This is accompanied by an archaic pension system that is higher for those in urban areas and Special Economic Zones (SEZ) than it is in the countryside (the 56% living in the countryside can expect a quarter of what those residing in the SEZs receive); such disparity is an obvious source of irritation for those Chinese below the poverty line. Such economic disparity, exacerbated by the ethnic tension that exists in such a vast and diverse country is creating frictions that if not addressed could threaten President Xi’s vision. The problem for China is stark and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (MHRSS) have acknowledged its existence, stating that they will provide policy solutions by 2020. Many observers contend that this is not quick enough.

Current predictions are that by 2050 there will be almost 420 million pensioners in China. In 2000, there were 6 workers for every retiree, but by 2030 this ratio will have fallen to just 2:1. This development will unquestionably undermine the ‘4-2-1 model’ of familial support that has been lauded as a means of contemporary Chinese workers sustaining their immediate family. Whilst it is likely that a small proportion of Chinese workers could sustain such responsibilities, Stratfor’s George Friedman stated “The China we think of, the China where people are earning more than $20,000 a year, well, that China is maybe 60 million people.” If Friedman’s figures are accurate then pension reform and other welfare policies will be necessary to provide for the majority in their dotage. Presently, the average retirement age in China is 53 years and better nutrition and greater access to modern medicine has resulted in an average life expectancy of 75 years of age. Whilst increasing the retirement age is a suggestion there is a deep and broad objection to this proposal – 70% of those polled in eleven Chinese cities recently objected to raising of the pension age. The MHRSS have indicated that they will legislate on such issues by 2020, but they need to address this quickly as China’s work force, that has so long delivered the demographic dividend the country needed, is now shrinking. For example, there were 3.4 million less workers in China in 2012 than in 2011. China’s workforce is dwindling and whilst it has traditionally been structured on high-volume, low to medium-skilled manufacturing it is now increasingly finding this a highly competitive environment, as William Wilson stated “China’s decade of double-digit wage growth is causing it to lose lower-end manufacturing to less costly countries like Vietnam and the Philippines.”

President Xi is clear on his vision: ‘China’s Dream’ of increasing economic power and asserting greater influence across Asia and possibly, globally too. However, presently one billion Chinese remain in poverty, its workforce is ageing rapidly and the welfare provision for these future pensioners is both inequitable and likely inadequate. Moreover, the impending ‘demographic deficit’, low birth rate, on-going corruption and poorly structured economy could result in China stumbling just at the point when everyone expected it to stride purposefully through the 21st Century and emerging as the sole hegemonic power. What is required now in is innovation. Numerous social and economic reforms, briefly outlined, are required to truly unlock the enormous potential whilst addressing the obvious problems. These observations are not criticisms. Over the past 30 years China has done the hard work remarkably well by developing its economy and utilising its mass, but what is now required is the leadership and innovation to do the ‘harder’ work. President Xi must deliver greater governance, re-structure the economy and raise living standards for all and not just the few. Whilst the Central Committee has acknowledged these problems exist there appears more inertia than action in the 18th Plenum and waiting until 2020 might not be soon enough. There is a perception of inertia and a stumble is beckoning….

Bosnia Herzegovina Through Fresh Eyes by Al Bowman, MStrat Student

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My last experience of the Balkans was as a young infantry officer deployed as part of the United Nations Protection Force in 1995.  Although we were told the Former Republic of Yugoslavia was part of the European land mass and was a conflict on our doorstep, it didn’t much feel like it; it felt a long way away and very different from my own experience of Europe.

What struck me returning for the first time was just how European it now feels.  For all the talk of basket case countries and corrupt bloated political systems the people of Sarajevo and it’s surrounding cantons did not reflect this assessment.  The conflict of 1992-1995 was horribly divisive and unimaginably brutal, yet somehow the human desire for revenge and justice has been parked in order to move on.

Admittedly the underlying nationalist and ethnic tensions that caused the last conflict remain and there is a sense of unfinished business but the hope is that the more that Bosnia Herzegovina can be drawn into the European expansion experiment the less chance there is that the unfinished business will be violent.

What struck me most travelling between Sarajevo and Gorazde was the distance, geography and physical reach between places that look very close on the map.  The Dutch commander at Srebrenica in 1995 was only a short helicopter ride from Sarajevo but it must have felt like he was isolated on a different planet as the genocide took place.  Britain has been lulled into believing over the last 20 years that globalisation has reduced the likelihood of conflict and the physical distance between places is less important.  However, I suspect that geography is very much alive and well as a critical factor in global politics and economics as Russia is demonstrating now.  Soft power and influence is great but it needs hard power that can be projected to make it meaningful.

We ought to remember this when crafting our next salami-slicing National Security Strategy that suggests we can do more with less (again).

MStrat Student, Dom Valitis, reflects on a field trip to Bosnia

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One of the first things you notice about Sarajevo is the surrounding landscape. The lush steep hills that tower above the city and the picturesque houses scattered among them paint an idyllic picture that would stand out in any travel brochure or guidebook on the Balkans. At the same time though, they also make you feel rather vulnerable. After all, it was these very same ‘fairy tale’ like hills that enabled Serb Forces to besiege the city and mercilessly attack its residents for nearly 4 years. Although impossible to fully comprehend what that must have been like, standing in the city centre looking up at those hills, you at least get ‘a sense’ of the vulnerability Sarajevo’s residents must have felt during those dark and violent days.  Indeed, the war is never far from mind in Bosnia. From the shrapnel scarred and bullet-riddled buildings to the painful memories etched in the very faces of the Bosnians we met, reminders of the conflict are everywhere.  The trip offered a number of experiences and insights like these that cannot be conveyed in a textbook or learned in a lecture.

Of course, that’s not to say there wasn’t a place for academic pursuits during our visit. The conference room of our hotel in central Sarajevo was the perfect location for a series of lectures on the conflict, how it shaped Bosnia and what the international community is doing  (both right and wrong) to help the country move forward. We were privileged to hear from some of the key people driving that effort forward. Representatives from the UK, EU, UN and OSCE all took time to honestly and openly share their views and opinions with us. It was an invaluable insight into how strategies are applied in the ‘real world’ and the challenges that are encountered in the process.

For me though, the highlight was hearing from ‘ordinary’ Bosnians who were willing to share their deeply personal experiences about the conflict, what life is like in Bosnia today and their hopes and fears for the country. Although harrowing, the trip to Srebrenica and meeting survivors of the massacre was a valuable experience.  So too was our visit to the Sarajevo tunnel and the personal briefing we received from representatives of the International Commission on Missing Persons about their work identifying the hundreds buried in Bosnia’s mass graves. A visit to Goradze underlined the sacrifices made by Britain’s armed forces during the conflict and a discussion with students from Sarajevo University highlighted the challenges facing the country today.

The MStrat trip to Bosnia was an invaluable experience and one that brought to life a cruel conflict that – sadly – is yet to be fully resolved.

 

SSI Field Trip to the Somme

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SSI Somme Field Trip

Three MStrat Students recall the SSI Somme Trip:

“On a drab and grey Friday afternoon in March we found ourselves standing in a hedgerow next to a farm looking at a large-ish copse at the far end of a field.  Except it wasn’t a hedgerow, it was the forward-most trench of the German Strongpoint defending Serre village on the morning of 1 July 1916.  And the copse wasn’t one large copse but four smaller ones – known as Matthew, Mark, Luke and John.  This was the left hand flank (the German right) of the British attack on the infamous first day of the Battle of the Somme where the British Army, largely made up of Kitchener’s volunteers formed into Pal’s Battalions, sustained nearly 60,000 casualties in a single day.  Over the course of the weekend we worked our way south, visiting the battlefields around Serre, Beaumont-Hamel and, finally, Thiepval where we laid a wreath from the students and staff of the Strategy and Security Institute at the imposing memorial.

A dozen of intrepid MStrat students took the opportunity of being in France to tour the battlefields.  Whilst many of us had been before, Professor Newton situated the battle in its wider strategic context and gave us a different view of the Great War.  Even if he did have a particular interest in resurrecting the reputation of the Generals… It was interesting to see the extent to which our understanding of what happened in the trenches is coloured by myth.  The portrayals of ‘lions lead by donkeys’ in films and TV shows like Blackadder and Oh What a Lovely War have had a lasting impact and overwritten what may be a more accurate portrayal of strategic leadership in 1916.

Kevin Myers, an Irish historian and journalist, took up this theme of building a myth as he explained how those Irish who fought with the Allies, have been written out of Irish history by successive waves of politicians and academics – despite many of the soldiers being Nationalists themselves.  The power of this narrative is striking, and fascinating how it endures a century on.

For all the understanding we developed of the wider ‘picture’ surrounding The Great War, you cannot escape the pathos of rows of, immaculately kept, white gravestones.  Many of the graves, particularly at ‘Sunken Lane’ the forming up point for the attack on Beaumont-Hamel, stood in clusters – in the beaten zones of the German heavy machine guns.  It does not take much imagination to visualize the ranks of men trudging across No Man’s Land and what they must have gone through.

It was a thoroughly valuable, fascinating and ‘enjoyable’ (if such a word can be used in such a context) trip brought to life and to relevance by our two excellent Tour Guides!”  Gavin Saunders

 

“Having been to the First World War battlefields on a school trip almost a decade ago, as many thousands of children will do so over the coming years to mark the anniversary of the conflict, a few recollections of the Somme stood out – bad weather, the perfectly conserved cemeteries dotted about the countryside, the vast expanses of openness, story after story of seemingly futile attempts to break the German line and, embedded in the psyche, the striking Thiepval Memorial.

This SSI trip now as a (hopefully) more observant MA student and soon-to-be platoon commander, confirmed these memories but also did much, much more.  Perhaps unsurprisingly the ability of General Newton to tie tactical, operational and strategic elements of the Somme together, along with the stories of individuals that really bring a battlefield tour to life, was remarkable – his descriptions of enfilading fire and beaten zones were somewhat more convincing than the valiant efforts of Miss Smith nine years ago. Likewise Kevin Myers powerful inputs on the myths surrounding the Somme were important in helping aid our understanding of the post-war narrative of the battle, and appreciating its place in British history.

As to be expected the sheer scale of the bloodshed is impossible to ignore.  While an overall view of the statistics is shocking enough, it is only when you walk along the headstones reading names, ranks, ages and inscriptions that the emotion tied to understanding that each grave relates to an individual story, of life and of death, really hits home.  Visiting the Thiepval Memorial will once again be an overriding memory of the trip. Laying a wreath from SSI to show our respect was a moving tribute and the image of General Newton and Gavin Saunders bracing up having placed a cross at the gravestones of two unknown soldiers of the Hampshire Regiment, a lineage I hope one day to join, is one that will undoubtedly remain vivid for some time.”  Daniel Hunt

“As a journalist, I’m well aware of the sacrifices the brave men and women of our Armed Forces have made over recent years.  I can vividly remember every single repatriation, inquest and funeral I’ve ever been assigned.  All were deeply sad occasions.  I can’t even begin to imagine what it must have been like for the families and friends of those who made the ultimate sacrifice.  Perhaps the main thing I took away from the SSI trip to the Somme was the industrial scale of the killing that occurred during World War One. Of course, I had read about the horrors of the war at school but nothing prepared me for the sheer number of graves.  Each one marking a life cut short, a family bereaved and a community shattered.  Nowhere was this more evident than at the Thiepval Memorial; a huge dedication to the 72,000 missing British and South African men who died in the battles of the Somme.  It was an utterly overwhelming experience and a poignant reminder of what can happen when strategies fail.” Dominic Valitis

Wanted – Your views on how Strategic Foresight should be integrated into the academic field of International Relations – for #futureday

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Posted on behalf of our Honorary Fellow, Cat Tully

Is the academic field of International Relations losing out because it doesn’t embrace foresight thinking? What can we do about it? If you have 5 minutes to share your views and thoughts, read on and fill out the survey: HERE.

This year, at the International Studies Association 2014 Conference, we are hosting a Roundtable on the practice and pedagogy of strategic foresight in International Relations, entitled: ‘Bridging the Gap : The Art and Practice of Strategic Foresight in International Relations‘.  The purpose of this Roundtable is to bring together International Relations scholars and practitioners to discuss the role of strategic foresight in international relations and to strengthen the community of interest to take this endeavour forward. To prepare for this Roundtable we are conducting a survey on the practice of strategic foresight in international relations – and seeking your views on this issue.

Strategic foresight approaches, when incorporated into long-term planning processes, can have significant impact on international policy-making. Looking beyond present challenges and opportunities to those on the horizon is arguably an indispensable and necessary role of government especially in the foreign policy realm. At this time of geopolitical uncertainty, there is growing interest in this approach to understand developments in the spatial dimensions of foreign policy. Yet foresight has a strangely marginal position in the International Relations academic sphere and is largely absent from most International Relations faculties and courses. However, it is arguably a discipline worth being taught and studied in universities.  The strategic foresight toolkit is growing in use by foreign policy practitioners, including diplomats.  And research would help clarify and focus on debates about good practice and the effectiveness of strategic foresight in influencing decision-making.

By hosting a Roundtable on this issue, we will be exploring the importance of strategic foresight and the challenges it faces in the school of international relations.  We will be discussing the contribution of scholars to foresight in international affairs, debate the value of the endeavour, and share examples of effective approaches and projects.  This survey will collect views from a wider group of people prior to the roundtable – and is being launched on World Futures Day on the 1 March, a day to celebrate the possibilities for transforming the future and an opportunity to open dialogue on these issues. You can get involved now by filling out this survey and contributing your views to the debate. The results of the survey will be discussed at the Roundtable and incorporated into an associated report.

The Survey will open on World Futures Day on Saturday 1st March, and will be live for 10 days, closing on Monday 10 March. It should take between 5-10 minutes to complete.  Follow this link to fill out the survey: COMPLETE SURVEY

Thank you very much.  And have a great #Futureday

– See more at: http://fromoverhere.net/2014/02/wanted-your-views-on-how-strategic-foresight-should-be-integrated-into-the-academic-field-of-international-relations-for-futuresday/#sthash.A7eSog1o.dpuf

Mstrat student submit evidence to Parliament on Iran

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The UK Parliament Commons Select Committee launched on 2 December 2013 its inquiry on “UK Policy Towards Iran”. Falling in line with the focus of one of the Mstrat student inquiry groups as part of the Crisis Watch module, two of our students submitted evidence to this inquiry in January.

The evidence submitted by Mal Craghill and Nicholas Wood can be found at the following url: http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/foreign-affairs-committee/inquiries1/parliament-2010/iran-2014/?type=Written#pnlPublicationFilter

Evidence was also submitted by an Exeter PhD candidate, Morgane Colleau, who is supervised by SSI’s Director of Research, Professor Gareth Stansfield. Her evidence can also be found in the link above.

“Wargaming by the Rules: Two Days in the Life of NATO Legal Advisors” by Dr Aurel Sari

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I have recently returned from RAF St Mawgan near Newquay in Cornwall, where I participated in the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps’ main exercise for this year, ARRCADE FUSION 2013. Running for a period of two weeks and involving over 2,000 military and civilian personnel, the exercise was designed to ensure that the ARRC maintains its operational readiness as part of the NATO Response Force.

 

As I knew from first-hand experience that Newquay gets a bit chilly at this time of the year, and having been advised to pack a ‘very warm’ sleeping bag, I arrived early in the morning kitted out like I was going on an Arctic expedition. It soon turned out that I erred on the side of caution by some margin, as the climate of the command and accommodation tents more closely resembled nearby Eden Project’s tropical biome than a windswept Cornish field in the middle of November.

 

Once I received my access pass and was given directions to the Brew Tent (serving coffee and tea, but bring your own mug), I was guided over to LEGAL—comprising two desks, four chairs, laptops and the legal advisors. And a supply of cookies and good humour.

 

This year, I specifically asked to be treated less as a visitor and more as another pair of hands on deck. Someone clearly got the message, as within the first five minutes of my arrival I was bombarded with about a dozen questions on a range of legal conundrums. Although the pace was not quite as relentless as I imagine it must be in real life operations, the questions kept rolling in at a steady rate throughout my two-day stay.

 

My participation in ARRCADE FUSION 2013 once again confirmed two important lessons. First, legal advisors deployed on operations must master a wide spectrum of international law. During the two days I spent with the ARRC, I was confronted with questions relating to the use of force, naval warfare, international refugee law, the law of neutrality, international human rights law, State responsibility, the classification of conflicts, various aspects of international humanitarian law, intelligence and the law of Chapter VII of the UN Charter. Quite a mix, really. Second, bringing together practitioners and academics in a setting such as this one offers real rewards to both sides. To me, the constant stream of legal problems requiring a more or less instant solution provided a refreshingly practical perspective on the law, while I believe my hosts benefitted from my expertise and second opinion in a number of subject areas. They certainly made me write memos.

 

Overall, participating in ARRCADE FUSION 2013 was a thoroughly enjoyable experience both personally and professionally, something of a cross between attending Glastonbury (save the music) and going on an international law field trip.