The first day of 2014 saw snow fall in the Iranian capital Tehran, an apt
reflection of the cold reception that greeted news of the historic agreement
reached in Geneva on November 24th. As president Hassan Rouhani
celebrated his first one hundred days in office, a hundred days that were
perhaps more productive than that of US president Barak Obama’s, he still
faces an uphill struggle to convince his near neighbours that both he, and
Iran, are not to be feared.
This deal has brought about sudden turn of events that has seen the status
quo in the Middle East suddenly shift far faster than many leaders would
have liked, and while the developed world celebrated an apparent thawing in
diplomatic relations with Iran, the temperature that has settled over Tehran is
similar to the coolness Iran’s neighbours are treating them with.
Saudi Arabia and Israeli, two of the most unlikely bedfellows have
nevertheless crawled under the blanket of security, providing them, no
doubt, with the warming reassurance of alliance and mutual interest in
keeping an ascendent Iran in check. Rightly this has shivers running down
the spine of many in Washington, London, Brussels and Tehran, particularly
considering Israel is the region’s sole nuclear power and Saudi Arabia, it has
been rumoured, has had secret dealings with Pakistan that involve funding
Pakistan’s nuclear programme in exchange for rapid access to nuclear
weapons. If these rumours prove true, it could make Iran and Rouhani think
long and hard about their current dismissal of a nuclear weapons programme.
With this unease generated by Israel and Saudi Arabia, the war in Syria is
most certainly an unwanted distraction, with Iran heavily involved in
supporting and financing the Assad regime and various factions operating
within Syria’s borders such as Hezbollah. This support of groups identified
by the West as terrorist organisations is still a big stumbling block on the road
to reconciliation, particularly with countries like Israel.
The news isn’t all bad, as it was Oman, one of Britain’s strongest allies in
the Middle East, who originally brokered the first tentative meetings between
Iran and the USA. The Gulf States’ cooperation is high on the list of priorities
for Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, as he said on his
Facebook Page that “Iran’s ties with the Persian Gulf littoral states will get
better day by day, and we will try to have these relations upgraded to the
highest level.” For their part the Gulf States are nervous of an ascendent Iran.
The US’s attempt at reconciliation, combined with its desire to be self
sufficient in its ability to access oil and natural gas put the Gulf States in a
tricky situation. Turki bin Faisal al Saud, member of the Saudi royal family
and former head of Saudi intelligence has warned that US-Iran relations
should galvanise the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf
(GCC) to form a “unit” that does more than cooperation on economic matters
and the price of oil. This sentiment was echoed by the Saudi deputy Foreign
Minister, Nizar Madani, who said “the Gulf states should no longer work
independently from one another to guarantee their security.” The GCC does
welcome a nuclear deal, as it diminished the threat of an Israeli-US military
strike on Iran. Being excluded from the negations however, was not
welcomed.
The real reason for the GCC’s unease, says Omar al Hassan, director of
the Gulf Centre for Strategic Studies, is the potential for Iran to use its new
found peace with the West to forge a place as a Middle Eastern superpower
that would use its influence in Syria and Iraq to try to control the region. Al
Hassan reckons this is where the GCC should come together to counter any
power grabs Iran may have planned.
In all, the deal brokered on 24th of November will have a positive impact
on the regional dynamics of the Gulf. The GCC feel let down by America for
not intervening in Syria, and will likely grow closer as time goes on. Iran can
use this closeness to its advantage, by extending trade deals (which will be
limited given US and UN sanctions) to both the GCC, and to its existing
allies such as China and Russia. Syria will play a huge role in deciding the
balance of power in the region, and if the US continues to bring Iran in as a
powerful ally in the war against al-Qaeda and Sunni extremism, then Iran
could have the upper hand in securing influence in the future of Syria. The
relationship between Iran and her neighbours is complex, with mistrust
stretching back to the days of the Shah and Iran’s previous attempts at
becoming a regional superpower. As Spring comes to Iran and the snow
melts, it is likely that the thaw will continue in the relationship Iran has with
both its neighbours and the outside world.