News

PhD opportunity: Online (mis)information and climate change

Fully funded PhD position to start in September 2018 – apply now!

Online (mis)information and climate change: Using network analysis and machine learning to understand environmental debate

Despite widespread scientific consensus, climate change remains a controversial and politicised topic. On one side, environmentalists push for greater action to prevent and mitigate the effects of climate change. On the other, a well-funded climate denial lobby promote doubt and confuse public opinion. This debate is actively pursued in online news and social media, where denialist blogs and commentators attempt to discredit the scientific viewpoint with a steady stream of contrarian articles and social media posts.

This PhD project will apply advanced computational methods to understand the online media ecosystem around climate change. In particular, it will seek to characterise the role of misinformation in online climate debates, looking in particular at social media accounts, bots and fake news sites linked to the climate denial viewpoint. Within this topic area there is considerable scope for the student to shape the project towards their own interests. The methods utilised will depend on the exact research question chosen, but are likely to combine complex network analysis, machine learning and text mining.

Find out more and apply here: http://www.exeter.ac.uk/studying/funding/award/?id=3037

Deadline: 8th March 2018

New paper: Walding et al (2018) A comparison of the US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) with recorded fire occurrence and final fire size.

New paper in International Journal of Wildland Fire – well done Nick! Find it here: https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17030

An analysis of the National Fire Danger Rating System for the conterminous US (2006–13). Fire danger indices are correlated with measures of fire activity in order to identify spatial patterns and discrepancies across the US and identify different aspects of wildfire activity along several fire danger spectrums.

 

New publication: Social sensing of floods in the UK

“Social sensing” is a form of crowd-sourcing that involves systematic analysis of digital communications to detect real-world events. Here we consider the use of social sensing for observing natural hazards. In particular, we present a case study that uses data from a popular social media platform (Twitter) to detect and locate flood events in the UK. In order to improve data quality we apply a number of filters (timezone, simple text filters and a naive Bayes ‘relevance’ filter) to the data. We then use place names in the user profile and message text to infer the location of the tweets. These two steps remove most of the irrelevant tweets and yield orders of magnitude more located tweets than we have by relying on geo-tagged data. We demonstrate that high resolution social sensing of floods is feasible and we can produce high-quality historical and real-time maps of floods using Twitter.

Floodiness grid, 64 × 64, over England and Wales on 5/12/2015 using (r, α, T) = (1.0, 0.15, 0.1).
Using tweets collected in 1 hour windows. White indicates no tweets. Colour bar units are floodiness relative to daily max. Top left: 10am-11am. Top Right: 1pm-2pm. Bottom Left: 4pm-5pm. Bottom Right: 9pm-10pm.

Read this article online.

New publication: Dynamic social media affiliations among UK politicians

Inter-personal affiliations and coalitions are an important part of politicians’ behaviour, but are often difficult to observe. Since an increasing amount of political communication now occurs online, data from online interactions may offer a new toolkit to study ties between politicians; however, the methods by which robust insights can be derived from online data require further development, especially around the dynamics of political social networks. We develop a novel method for tracking the evolution of community structures, referred to as ‘multiplex community affiliation clustering’ (MCAC), and use it to study the online social networks of Members of Parliament (MPs) and Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) in the United Kingdom. Social interaction networks are derived from social media (Twitter) communication over an eventful 17-month period spanning the UK General Election in 2015 and the UK Referendum on membership of the European Union in 2016. We find that the social network structure linking MPs and MEPs evolves over time, with distinct communities forming and re-forming, driven by party affiliations and political events. Without including any information about time in our model, we nevertheless find that the evolving social network structure shows multiple persistent and recurring states of affiliation between politicians, which align with content states derived from topic analysis of tweet text. These findings show that the dominant state of partisan segregation can be challenged by major political events, ideology, and intra-party tension that transcend party affiliations.

Political retweet communities
An example network based on retweet interactions (see Methods) over the 7-day period from 2016-05-30 to 2016-06-06. Nodes represent MPs/MEPs and node properties indicate party affiliation (colour), stated position on UK membership of the EU (closed – remain, open – leave), and their status as an MP (circle) or MEP (triangle).

Read the article online.