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M2D 2018 Oral Programme - Models to Decisions

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M2D 2018 Oral Programme

How to find us | Event Map 

Monday, June 11

M2D 2018 Opening Plenary. Chairs Peter Challenor & Catherine Powell.

Dr Christie Marr (Deputy Director, Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge) A few words of welcome.

Prof. Jason Lowe (Met Office, Hadley Centre and Priestley International Centre for Climate Chair) From climate models to real world decisions. 


Challenges in Trust in Models. Chairs: Richard Bradley (LSE) and Chris Dent (Edinburgh)

Tom Philp (XLCatlin), Wendy Parker (Durham), Jim Smith (Warwick) and Andrew Wright (Ofgem). Session Summary.  


Oral Presentations

Dimitra Salmanidou (University College London) Potential large tsunami hazards associated with landslide failure along the West coast of India: from uncertainties to planning decision
Melody Ni (Imperial College London) Trust in medical technologies and confidence in clinical decision-making
Joe Roussos (London School of Economics) Making confident decisions with model ensembles
Erica Thompson (London School of Economics) From questions to models to decisions: dialogue to support effective use of simulation modelling

Poster Blitz

One minute poster pitches.


Tuesday 12 June

Mathematical Challenges in Uncertainty Quantification Chairs: Catherine Powell (Manchester) and David Woods (Southampton)

Tim Waite (Manchester),  Max Gunzburger (Florida State University) and Ines Cecilio (Schlumberger). Session Summary.


Oral Presentations

Victoria Stephenson (University College London) Overcoming Uncertainty in Legacy Engineering Resilience Modelling for Flood Hazards 
John Bruun & Katy Sheen (University of Exeter) Enhancing earth system decision making capacity with dominant frequency state analysis 
David Cameron (CEH-Edinburgh) Managing Uncertainties in Modelling Air Pollution (MU-MAP) 
Francesca Pianosi (University of Bristol) Robust and transparent planning and operation of water resource infrastructure

Challenges in Model Discrepancy Chairs: Alex Diaz (Liverpool) and Peter Challenor (Exeter)

Jenny Brynjarsdottir (Case Western Reserve University), Ed Wheatcroft (London School of Economics), Richard Ahlfeld (UQuant, Imperial College London) and Michael Goldstein (Durham University). Session Summary


 [Mini-Discussions] Developing a Research Agenda on:

Uncertainty Quantification. Chairs: Catherine Powell and David Woods
From Models to Decisions. Chairs: Richard Bradley and Julie Gore


Wednesday 13 June

Challenges in Communication and Visualisation. Chairs:Julie Gore (Bath) and James Lyons (Exeter)

Wendy Jephson (Nasdaq) and Neesha Kadagoda (VALCRI). Session Summary


Oral Presentations

Ekaterina Svetlova (University of Leicester) Communication of uncertainties about company’s future to capital markets
Alexandra Freeman (University of Cambridge) The effects of communicating uncertainty about numbers and facts
Suraje Dessai (University of Leeds) Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation

[Mini-Discussions] Developing a Research Agenda on:

Uncertainty Visualisation. Chairs: James Lyons and Alex Freeman



Thursday 14 June

Plenary talk. Chair Peter Challenor

Danny Williamson (University of Exeter) From big models to big decisions: what is the role of uncertainty in adaption to climate change (and what should it be)?

Platform Presentations

Leonard Smith (LSE) Beyond Forecasting: Using Today’s Model(s) to Forewarn Decision Makers
Dan Pagendam (CSIRO Data61 Brisbane) Making better decisions in the face of uncertainty in digital agriculture: The Uncertainty Toolbox


Research Agenda Roundtable Discussions

Uncertainty Quantification. Chairs: Catherine Powell and David Woods. Room – tbc
From Models to Decisions. Chairs: Richard Bradley and Julie Gore. Room – tbc
Communicating Uncertainty. Chairs: James Lyons and Alex Freeman. Room – tbc

Research Agenda Synergy – bringing the above separate discussions together. 


M2D 2018 Closing Plenary. Chair Peter Challenor 

Prof. Sir David Spiegelhalter OBE FRS (Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge). Trustworthy communication of numbers

 How to find us | Event Map 

Friday 15 June

Open for Business 

Uncertainty Quantification for Complex Systems – Development in Theory and Methodologies

This one day workshop will take place at the Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge and is being organised by Prof Peter Challenor and Dr Catherine Powell as part of the Uncertainty Quantification Programme.

This is a separate event to the M2D2018 Conference, but many may find it relevant and interesting to stay on for. Please follow this link for further information and details on how to register.



M2D Research Agenda

Open Consultation

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M2D Funding Applications Deadline

Call now closed

Next Expert Panel Meeting

Friday 14th September 2018

Get in contact

Emma Clarke
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